Optimism is in the Real Estate DNA | INews20 Editorial

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Optimism is in the Real Estate DNA

The year concludes with reflections not so much on forecasts, which remain speculative, but on analyzing what has happened; we currently only have data from the first half of the year, but it’s clear there has been a market slowdown. This has often been sensationalized by general and industry-specific media with terms like “emergency” or “brake.”

In reality, there has been a decline, particularly in the number of transactions, as certified by the National Notarial Council. Transactions dropped from 303,375 to 277,052 (comparing respective first halves). Furthermore, the data reveals an 11% decrease in private home purchases and a more pronounced 34.2% drop in purchases from companies. These are indisputable facts, and we’ll see how they evolve over the full 12 months.

Certainly, the context in which these figures are situated is not optimal. From a regulatory standpoint, we are still transitioning out of the bonus period (super and otherwise) and entering the “mood” of green-certified homes with adjustments mandated by Europe.

Macroeconomically, things aren’t much better: inflation is eroding purchasing power, and interest rates are preventing many people from buying property through mortgages.

In light of this scenario, one might be pessimistic. However, we persist in seeing the glass as half full, even regarding the aforementioned issues. By projecting the semi-annual data over 12 months and hypothesizing an annual transaction number of 550,000 in 2023, we see that we have simply returned to 2018 values, but with something more; achieving the same numbers of a “normal” market despite the “burden” of inflation, high mortgage rates, and the consequent decline in loans means a market that has returned to “normal” numbers but is capable of “containing” the damage of an unfavorable macroeconomy.

Because this is the normal range of transactions in Italy (550,000-600,000), not the 700,000 post-pandemic, we can say, all things considered, that we have simply returned to the normalcy of a market that remains certainly the least “volatile” of all.

Too optimistic? This is who we are, and anyone working in real estate must have this trait in their blood and entrepreneurial DNA. Even more so, those who are part of a Group or Family like ours, where optimism, determined passion for work, and a sense of community have always “found a home”—a home that never disappoints.


Arch. Paolo Padovani
Member of L’immobiliare.com | Verona


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